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BTC Now

Bitcoin Credit Thesis — Executive Summary
Building the Missing Infrastructure for Bitcoin

01The $2.2 Trillion Gap

Bitcoin is a $2.2 trillion asset class with zero institutional credit infrastructure. Every other major asset class in history has developed a credit layer — real estate has mortgages, automobiles have auto loans, equities have margin lending. Bitcoin has nothing.

Bitcoin Market Cap
$2.2 Trillion
Institutional Credit Market
$0
US Crypto Holders
50M+ Americans
Non-Liquidating Credit Access
Zero

At real estate or auto leverage ratios (20–25%), the addressable Bitcoin credit market is $440–$550 billion. BTC Now is building the infrastructure to capture this market.

This is not a DeFi protocol. This is not overcollateralized lending. BTC Now creates new Bitcoin demand through undercollateralized consumer acquisition plans — every loan originated is a real, on-chain Bitcoin purchase.

02Why Banks Are Structurally Locked Out

Basel III classifies Bitcoin as a Group 2 cryptoasset with a 1,250% risk weight. This means a bank holding $100M in Bitcoin must maintain $125M in Tier 1 capital — more capital than the asset is worth.

Basel III Risk Weight
1,250%
Capital Required per $100M BTC
$125M
BTC-Collateralized Receivables (Consumer Finance)
75–100% risk weight — 8.7× capital efficiency gain

No bank — not JPMorgan, not Goldman — can make the math work for direct Bitcoin credit. The credit layer for Bitcoin must come from outside the banking system. This is not a choice — it is regulation. This is the architecture of the opportunity.

However, BTC-collateralized receivables are classified as consumer finance, receiving only 75–100% risk weight. BTC Now structures its products as consumer installment plans, not crypto loans — enabling institutional distribution through traditional securitization channels.

03How It Works

BTC Now offers Bitcoin Purchase Plans — fixed monthly installments with no margin calls, no liquidation, and no overcollateralization. If Bitcoin drops 90%, your payment stays the same.

01
Choose
$50–$10,000/month
4 to 120 month terms
02
Pay
Fixed installments
12–18% APR
No liquidation. Ever.
03
Own
Real BTC held in Fireblocks
Delivered at plan completion

Real Bitcoin Only

04The Supply Lock Effect

Every plan originated is a net new market buy. Real Bitcoin is purchased on-market and locked in segregated custody for the duration of the plan — up to 10 years. This creates structural demand that removes BTC from circulating supply.

$1B Originations
~10,000 BTC
$10B At Scale
~100,000 BTC
Lock Duration
Up to 10 Years

Unlike ETFs, futures, or derivatives that create synthetic exposure without affecting supply, BTC Now originations represent real structural demand. Every dollar of credit originated is a dollar of Bitcoin purchased and locked. This is not recycled exposure — it is permanent supply removal for the life of each loan.

The more credit BTC Now originates, the more Bitcoin is locked in custody, the less supply available on-market, the more upward pressure on price. Credit infrastructure creates a structural supply squeeze.

05Distributed Demand vs Concentrated Risk

The market already understands Bitcoin exposure — Strategy holds 528K+ BTC, miners take out corporate debt, digital asset treasuries are everywhere. But all of these create concentrated structural risk. They are not demand. They are coins ready to be sold when things go wrong.

Corporate Treasury Model
700K BTC, 1 balance sheet, 1 liquidation event
BTC Now Model
700K people, 700K independent payment streams, zero correlation

Every corporate treasury, every mining company, every leveraged fund holding Bitcoin creates a single point of failure. When the stock drops, when covenants breach, when margin calls hit — hundreds of thousands of BTC hit the market at once. This is the mechanism behind every major crypto contagion event.

BTC Now distributes demand across hundreds of thousands of individual consumer loans, each funded by monthly income — the most diversified, uncorrelated cash flow in existence. A recession that causes one borrower to default does not cause another to default. There is no contagion. There is no forced selling.

What's better for Bitcoin? 700K coins on one corporate balance sheet backed by convertible debt — or 700K people each with a 1 BTC installment plan? BTC Now is the infrastructure that turns concentrated risk into distributed, structural demand. Read the full analysis →

06A Better Bitcoin Product

Digital asset treasury companies (like Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy) and Bitcoin miners offer Bitcoin exposure, but with 1.5–4.0x BTC price beta and significant leverage and bankruptcy risk. BTC Now delivers yield-driven returns with 0.2–0.5x beta — performance comes from 15% APR lending spread, not Bitcoin price speculation.

Characteristic BTC Now Fund BTC Treasury Crypto Miners Spot ETFs
Return Driver 15% APR Yield BTC Price BTC Production BTC Price
BTC Price Beta 0.2–0.5x 1.5–2.5x 2.0–4.0x 1.0x
Leverage None 1.5–2.5x Variable None
Drawdown Risk No drawdowns High (leverage) High (leverage) Tracks BTC vol
Bankruptcy Risk None (unleveraged) Moderate High (operational) None

Performance Across BTC Prices (10-Year)

BTC Flat ($100K)
BTC Now: +412%
ETFs / Direct: ~0%
BTC Crashes to $30K
BTC Now: +242%
ETFs / Direct: −70%
BTC to $1M
BTC Now: +440%
ETFs / Direct: +900%

Why Existing Credit Fails Bitcoin Buyers

BTC Now is the only purpose-built Bitcoin credit product: fixed payments, real BTC, no liquidation, no margin calls. Full comparison →

07Bitcoin Yield Without Selling Bitcoin

For large Bitcoin holders: contribute BTC to the BTC Now Warehouse Fund at market value. Earn monthly yield. Your Bitcoin position only grows.

The Accumulation Strategy

Early Payoff = Accelerated Yield

Yield maintenance clause: if a borrower pays off early, they owe the full terminal value of the loan. You capture the entire 10-year yield compressed into a shorter period. Capital recycles immediately into new originations — generating 4–5x capital velocity over the fund's life.

You already hold the hardest asset. BTC Now lets you earn yield on it without custody risk, without selling, and without leverage — while simultaneously creating structural demand for Bitcoin.

08Self-Healing Default Structure

Bitcoin is the hardest collateral in existence. It doesn't depreciate, doesn't rust, and doesn't need insurance. When a borrower defaults, the fund keeps all payments already made and recovers the Bitcoin at market price.

Default Recovery Example

Purchase Amount
$100,000
Default at Month 36, BTC Down 20%
Payments: $57,600 + BTC: $80,000
Total Recovery
$137,600 — 37.6% profit on the default

The recovered Bitcoin is immediately re-issued to a new buyer at current market pricing — generating new origination fees and a new payment stream. No capital consumed. Warehouse capacity regenerates.

The fund is modeled to survive 70% simultaneous defaults combined with a 90% BTC price decline. This is what sound money credit looks like.

09The Flywheel to Reserve Currency

BTC Now's credit infrastructure creates a self-reinforcing cycle that accelerates Bitcoin's path from digital gold to global reserve currency:

Credit Originates
New BTC purchased on-market
Supply Locked
BTC held in custody 10yr
Price Rises
Reduced supply, constant demand
Institutions Enter
Lower vol attracts capital

More credit → more demand → higher price → lower volatility → more institutions → more credit. This is the flywheel. BTC Now is the engine that starts it.

This flywheel is not bound by geography — BTC Now's credit model works across the Middle East, Asia, Europe, and Oceania, creating collective global demand that no single market event can disrupt. Global analysis →

As Bitcoin's market cap grows and volatility compresses, rates converge toward sovereign levels — getting a Bitcoin loan at 15% today is the 2012 equivalent of buying BTC at $12. Early adopters capture the largest asymmetry. Rate compression model →

Risk-Adjusted Returns (Sharpe Ratio)

Asset ClassExpected ReturnVolatilitySharpe
US Treasuries4.0%2.5%0.00
S&P 500 Equity10.0%18.0%0.33
BTC Spot25.0%80.0%0.26
BTC Credit (Institutional)9.0%6.0%0.83
BTC Credit (Retail)15.0%8.0%1.38

At terminal equilibrium, the Bitcoin credit market reaches $300–375 trillion, with BTC market cap at $1.5 quadrillion and implied price of $71.4 million per BTC. Terminal volatility compresses to ~4.2%, with credit rates converging to sovereign levels (2–4%).

10A New ETF Product Category

BTC Now charges zero performance fee and zero carry. This is intentional. Most private credit funds cannot convert to ETFs because their carry structures make it prohibitively complex. BTC Now's zero-carry model is purpose-built for public listing.

Carry / Performance Fee
0%
Initial Warehouse Target
$150M
Bond Capacity (via ABS)
$1.2B

This creates a new ETF product category: Bitcoin-backed private credit. Institutional-grade. Yield-driven. Accessible to retail investors through a public wrapper.

For BTC providers, the ETF listing is your exit. LP positions convert to publicly tradable shares with daily liquidity, replacing a 24-month lockup with an open market. You participate in building Bitcoin's credit infrastructure and exit into a liquid public product.

11Miner Sell Pressure Removal

Bitcoin miners must sell BTC to fund operations — electricity, hardware, facilities. This creates $10B+ in annual sell pressure on the open market. BTC Now offers a fundamentally better alternative.

01
Deposit BTC
Miner deposits Bitcoin into BTC Now
02
Create Receivable
BTC allocated to consumer plan, receivable exceeds spot price
03
Factor for USD
Miner sells receivable to bank for immediate fiat

The receivable is worth more than spot because it includes the full interest stream (e.g., 1 BTC at $100K spot generates a $192K receivable at 15% over 10 years). After factoring discount, the miner receives 10–30% more than a market sale — and zero Bitcoin hits the orderbook.

BTC Now doesn't just create new demand — it simultaneously removes the largest source of structural sell pressure in the Bitcoin market. Every miner who uses BTC Now instead of selling on market is a miner whose production never hits the orderbook. Full miner analysis →

12The Invitation

Bitcoin has been store of value for 15 years. It is time for Bitcoin to become a medium of credit. BTC Now is how that happens.

LP Investor
$1M Minimum
17.8% IRR base case · 24-month lockup · 0% performance fee · 10% preferred return · BTC or USD contribution
Equity Investor
$1M at $5M Post-Money
20% ownership · $1M equity → $150M warehouse → $1.2B bonds · 90%+ operating margins at scale

Team

Contact: marc@btcnow.com